With the American Conference needing to schools they turned to Conference USA. That left them looking to expand or fall behind, so CUSA turned to the collapsing WAC and Sun Belt. That leaves six new members to the conference. Is it better? Not right now, but with teams in Louisiana, Texas, and Florida they have schools who have potential to really grow.
Here is how I predict the new look Conference USA.
East
1. East Carolina Pirates (8-4 7-1)
This will be Ruffin McNeill's best team since coming to East Carolina returning 18 starters and looking to win the conference for the first time. WR Justin Hardy will look to get another 1,000 yard season and having QB Shane Carden back again will make it easier in their Air Raid offense. Defensively they might be even better with impact players Jeremy Grove and Derrell Johnson running the show. Their success this year will come down to hosting Tulsa and going to Marshall.
2. Marshall Thundering Heard (8-4 6-2)
Even though Marshall won only five games last year, they could be a major player in the new look CUSA. Returning 15 starters including reigning CUSA Offensive Player of the Year QB Rakeem Cato the Heard are poised to challenge for the East Division Title. It will help beating up on the newbies, but if they can't take advantage of hosting East Carolina, then they will finish second.
3. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (6-6 5-3)
You don't fire a coach after one year unless it's really bad. And that's exactly what we saw last year. Ellis Johnson came in with a great resume, but just stunk as a head coach taking a 12 win team to losing every single game. Todd Monken is in and he brings back a spread offense that Larry Fedora has success with. The Eagle should be on their way back, but not all the way yet. They still have some rebuilding to do.
4. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (5-7 3-5)
Middle Tennessee (dropped State by the way) won eight games last year and even upset ACC's Georgia Tech. Having that type of success and returning 15 starters should give them an advantage over the rest of the Sun Belt teams coming up. But as we've learned stepping up doesn't always lend to early success. So seeing them here in the middle of the East seems a like a good first season.
5. Alabama-Birmingham Blazers (4-8 2-6)
UAB surprisingly did well last year against their toughest opponents, but couldn't translate those tough losses into wins. The Blazers return 16 starters and an offense that has the potential to really break out. But it all comes down to the improvement of the defense. You can't outscore everybody. Their schedule sets up well with winnable games early and they have to hope they can get some confidence there to help them when it gets tough at the end.
6. Florida Atlantic Owls (5-7 3-5)
Howard Schnellenberger did an amazing job building FAU from nothing into back to back bowl games. However as he continued to get older the Owls began to fade. They then turned to Carl Pelini who comes with a defensive background. They only won three games last year but really seemed to improve as the season grew. They return nine starters on defense which will help them stay out of the basement of the division.
7. Florida International Panthers (3-9 2-6)
I was very critical of their firing of Mario Cristobal after one bad year, but at least they did a good job of finding a good replacement in Ron Turner. Now when hired not many people probably knew who he is, but Turner had a good run at Illinois. If Turner can recruit the state, the Panthers could be real good. As for this year it's going to be rough. FIU only won four games in the Sun Belt and are moving up. At least they're in Miami.
West
1. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (8-4 7-1)
Your defending CUSA champs, the Golden Hurricanes would love to make it a repeat. While they only return three starters on defense which can't be good. But they make up for that with seven returning starters on offense including QB Cody Green. Their schedule doesn't do them any favors since they draw both Marshall and East Carolina out of the East. But hosting Marshall and Rice makes things easier for the Golden Hurricanes.
2. Rice Owls (9-3 6-2)
The Rice Owls have been merely average over the past few years, going to a few bowl games but never really contending for a conference title. Well this year it looks to change. Rice returns 19 of 22 starters which is the most of any team in FBS. Their strength is their running game where they return two 800 yard rushers. Defensively they have key players in LB Cameron Nwosu and CB Phillip Gaines but have to improve on the 31 points per game last year.
3. Texas El-Paso Miners (5-7 4-4)
Not only do the Miners have a new coach this year, but they also have to do so with the fewest returning starters in the conference. Sean Kugler comes in from the Steelers where he was the line coach. He inherits Texas A&M transfer Jameill Showers at QB which should help. But it's their schedule that is the biggest chance at them getting in the top half of the division. They draw both Middle Tennessee and FIU out of the East which is better than any of the other teams in this division.
4. North Texas Mean Green (5-7 3-5)
There are a couple of factors that could lead to a good season for the Mean Green. First off they have a very underrated coach in Dan McCarney, they avoid both Marshall and East Carolina, and return 17 starters. They also add QB Brock Berglund to compete with returnee Derek Thompson to provide a quality QB competition. However North Texas did only win four games last year and that was in the Sun Belt. I think they improve, but not by much.
5. Tulane Green Wave (5-7 3-5)
With all the talent in the state of Louisiana and especially in New Orleans you'd expect Tulane to be a lot better. Instead they've really been bad and haven't made a bowl since the 2002 Hawaii Bowl. Last year they did win only two games but had three games that they lost by five points or less. So there was still improvement. They're hoping adding QB Nick Montana will give them a reliable QB to pair with All Conference RB Orleans Darkwa.
6. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (5-7 3-5)
After winning nine games last year the Bulldogs made headlines for turning down the Independence Bowl in a hope of a better game. That blew up in their face because they ended up staying home. Pair that with Sonny Dykes leaving and the Bulldogs moving into Conference USA it's been an eventful off season. New coach Skip Holtz has his work cut out for his this year. LaTech only returns 7 total starters including most of their high powered passing attack. Luckily they return RB Kennith Dixon which will be asked to lead their attack. But don't expect anything even close to nine wins.
7. Texas San Antonio Road Runners (2-10 2-6)
This will be only the third season in UTSA's existence and their coming off an 8-4 season with 18 returning starters. However they played five FCS schools last year and also benefited by playing in a bad WAC. Moving to Conference USA isn't going to be easy for the Road Runners. They hope that their confidence winning eight games and having an experienced coach in Larry Coker will ease the transition.
All Conference Team
QB: Rakeem Cato, Marshall
RB: Trey Watts, Tulsa
RB: Orleans Darkwa, Tulane
WR: Tommy Shuler, Marshall
WR: Justin Hardy, East Carolina
TE: Gator Hoskins, Marshall
OT: Caleb Williams, Rice
OG: Josh Walker, Middle Tennessee
C: Chris Jasperse, Marshall
OG: Cyril Lemon, North Texas
OT: Antonio Johnson, North Texas
DL: IK Enemkpali, Lousiana Tech
DL: Greg Hickman, FIU
DL: Khyri Thortnton, Southern Miss
DL: Jeremiah Taylor, Marshall
LB: Derrell Johnson, East Carolina
LB: Shawn Jackson, Tulsa
LB: Cameron Nwosu, Rice
CB: Deron Wilson, Southern Miss
S: Marco Nelson, Tulsa
S: DJ Hunter, Marshall
CB: Adonis Armstrong, East Carolina
K: Cairo Santos, Tulsa
P: Tyler Williams, Marshall
RS: Reggie Whatley, Middle Tennessee
Offensive Player of the Year: Rakeem Cato QB Marshall
Defensive Player of the Year: Khyri Thornton DT Southern Miss
Newcomer of the Year: James Cox WR Southern Miss
Coach of the Year: Doc Holliday, Marshall
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