Spread = National Championship?

The Spread Offense

The spread offense was created in an effort for smaller teams to be more success against bigger stronger teams so they couldn't handle the physical pounding. The idea was to spread the defense out and utilize speed and quickness to move the ball and score points. Over time the spread has grown and adapted for various needs. In the mid 2000s the spread really boomed to now where more than half of FBS programs are running some version. Even teams in BCS conference and tradition rich programs are running hurry up spread attacks.

But the big question is, can you win a National Title while running the spread offense? Conventional wisdom suggests you can. Get the right coach and some impact players and anybody can win a National Title. But since 2000 (when the spread really started to take off) only three teams that classified themselves as spread offenses won National Titles. Texas (2005), Florida (2006, 2008) and Auburn (2010). So it can be done, but why hasn't it happened more?

One problem with the spread is it lends itself to being a finesse offense. You're relying predominantly on speed players and getting them into space. This will lead frequent big plays and high scoring games. But what happens when you get closer to the red zone? Or in short yardage? It gets tougher. Especially against good physical defensive line. And one thing that has really hurt spread teams. They struggle to get the tough yards.

Just look at Oregon in the 2011 National Title Game.  The Ducks had several opportunities within the Auburn five yard line but couldn't get the couple of years they needed to get a touchdown on the board.  When the Ducks needed a yard or two they to the zone read.  The zone read just isn't a good red zone play because it takes to long and the defense can be more aggressive.  Thus the Ducks were forced to go for it on 4th down or kick a field goal. What if Oregon could have gotten a TD on just one of those possessions? They probably would have been National Champions.

Another example is this years Mississippi vs Alabama game.  Alabama ended up winning 25-0, but the game was a lot closer than the score will tell you.  A big reason why Ole Miss couldn't put points on the board is their drives keep stalling out with third and shorts.  What plays did they run in those situations?  Zone read.  Alabama's strong defensive line was able to control the line and it threw off the play.

But what about those three schools that did win National Titles?  There is one big difference those teams had.  Strong power runners at QB.  Texas had Vince Young who was 6'5 and relied on his speed, but was also strong enough to get tough yards when needed.  Florida had Tim Tebow who was basically a fullback playing QB.  And Auburn had Cam Newton who they would run on QB dives in short yardage situations. 

So does this mean that teams should drop the spread if they have National Title hopes?  No, but they would be smart to figure out their short yardage issues and get backs on their team that can run between the tackles. Whether it's getting bigger backs, QBs that can get those short yards, or maybe just calling different plays.  Because those short yardage situations are going to win or lose you some games.