Friday, October 25, 2013

Weekend Kickoff (Week 9)

Games of the Week
Season Record (27-13)

#14 UCLA Bruins at #2 Oregon Ducks
This has the potential to be a high scoring back and forth game.  We thought the same with Washington, but the Ducks defense stepped up and slowed down the Huskies.  UCLA might have better weapons then Washington, but they did just get shut down by Stanford.  Add in the improvements the Ducks have seen on defense and it could be too much for the Bruins. I like UCLA, but they are not on Oregon's level and see the Ducks firepower just being too much for UCLA to handle.
Prediction:  UCLA 24 Oregon 42

#22 South Carolina Gamecocks at #5 Missouri Tigers
Even with their win over Florida I'm still skeptical of Missouri.  They were flat out terrible last year and all of a sudden are a top five team this year.  Add in that Maty Mauk is still a freshman QB starting his second game and I think they could be ripe for the upset.  And that's all without taking into account that South Carolina has top 10 talent despite their underachieving ways so far.  This game should decide who wins the SEC East, so you know South Carolina will be ready to go.  We'll also find out if Missouri is really for real.
Prediction:  South Carolina 20 Missouri 27

#8 Stanford Cardinals at Oregon State Beavers
Very underrated game that has Pac 12 North implications. We all know that Stanford is hoping to win out to stay in the title hunt, but quietly Oregon State is undefeated in Pac 12 play and sitting right outside of the top 25. The Beavers will bring QB Sean Mannion and his 427 passing yards per game. The Beaver passing attack is going to really test Stanford's defense which stepped up last week against UCLA. But they've shut down dual threat guys, not a pure passer the likes of Mannion. The true test may be whether Oregon State handle Stanford's physical running game. This has upset written all over it, but I still see Stanford grinding out another win before their big showdown with Oregon.
Prediction:  Stanford 30 Oregon State 27

#13 Texas Tech Red Raiders at #20 Oklahoma Sooners
The two best teams in the Big 12 (Baylor and Tech) according to the rankings really haven't been tested yet. This is Tech's first chance to prove they belong and it's against an Oklahoma team that's out to prove their loss to Texas was an abnormality. Tech will bring their high powered offense to Norman, but will be starting freshman QB Davis Webb for a second straight game. However this isn't West Virginia or Iowa State. This is Oklahoma who has the top defense in the league. Look for Stoops to confuse the young signal caller in making mistakes. But Oklahoma will also need to figure out their offense too.
Prediction:  Texas Tech 27 Oklahoma 37

Penn State Nittany Lions at #4 Ohio State Buckeyes
One thing we've learned about Penn State football in the post Peterno era is that Bill O'Brien is one heck of a coach. He will have Penn State ready to play and a plan that will exploit the porous Buckeye defense. But I don't know if the Nittany Lion defense will be able to slow down Baxton Miller and the Buckeye offense. Braxton Miller has shown in his tenure that he rises up in big games and the same should happen here. If Ohio State is going to lose a game this regular season, I think it's here.
Prediction:  Penn State 30 Ohio State 38



Matchup to Watch

Penn State WR Allen Robinson vs Ohio State CB Bradley Roby

Player Profiles
Going into this season Bradley Roby (5'11 193) was considered one of the best corner backs in the nation. Roby is a physically gifted corner with a good combination of speed and quickness. He as the ability to stick with receivers in man to man situations and lock receivers down. Roby also does a great job breaking on the ball well and does a good job to attacking the ball which causes a lot of pass breakups and interceptions. However that aggressiveness can also hurt him as he bits too much on fakes and can gamble wrong leading to catches and big plays. That was evident when Wisconsin WR Jared Abbrederis had 207 yards receiving on him this year.

Allen Robinson (6'3 210) is an imposing receiver who will use his size to gain leverage against the defenders. Robinson has the speed to beat you deep or get yards after the catch, but he isn't a burner in any stretch and this allows defenders to stick with him. Robinson does run good routes and varies his speeds to throw off defenders, but he could improve and sometimes can get lazy. Robinson has big strong hands that allow him to catch the ball in traffic.

Projection
These two players do have a history with Robinson going for 68 yards last year but no scores. Robinson is Penn State's main target in the passing game and their top weapon. Roby despite his struggled will get the call to cover the Penn State receiver. Penn State is going to move Robinson around and get him the ball deep and short or over the middle. Look for several double moves to take advantage of Roby's aggressiveness and hoping he bits. Robinson does have the size advantage, but Roby isn't afraid to get physical. Jump balls should be fun to watch to see who gets the ball or if it's a catch at all. But when push comes to shove. I see Roby getting the upper hand. Robinson will get some yards like last year. But look for Roby to embrace the match up and show that he is still the top corner in this draft. That's why he came back.



Playoff Watch

As pretty much everybody knows, this is the final year of the BCS. Now while most people have longed for a playoff, I've always been a fan of the Bowls. But that's another story for another day. But with the season at it's mid point, I thought that it would be fun to look ahead and see what a playoff would project to at this point.

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs #4 Ohio State Buckeyes

#2 Oregon Ducks vs #3 Florida State Seminoles


Projected National Title Game
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs #2 Oregon Ducks


Summary
Since the last time I looked ahead at a possible playoff, the two top teams remain (Alabama and Oregon) but now we see Florida State and Ohio State join the mix. This does give us some new match ups to consider. Alabama vs Ohio State should be a fun game to watch. Anytime you see Urban Meyer vs Nick Saban it's going to be fun. Alabama has struggled against Johnny Manziel before and Braxton Miller's ability to run should give them fits. But Miller isn't as good of a passer as Johnny Manziel is which should allow them to slow him down enough. In the other game we see Florida State vs Oregon in what would be an epic game. Famous Jameis vs Mariota. This could be a toss up with both explosive offenses and good defenses. I'll see Oregon pulling out the win just with shearer talent and explosive players on offense.

As for the National Title Game. I've wanted to see Alabama vs one of the top offenses in college (almost got it with Oklahoma State a couple of years ago) but that just hasn't happened. Like previously stated, the Crimson Tide struggled at times with tempo, how would they do against Oregon's? However I still do think Alabama's experience and talent shine through.

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