Friday, September 27, 2013

Weekend Preview (Week 5)

Games of the Week
Season Record (13-7)

#7 LSU Tigers at #9 Georgia Bulldogs
There are so many story lines in this game that I don't know where to get started. You could talk about two teams looking to stay in the National Title picture. Two top 10 teams facing off against each other. Or maybe Zach Mettenberger returning to the school he originally committed to. No matter what you want to look at, this is going to be one heck of a game. Both teams traditionally have strong defenses, but I expect this to be a shoot out. We'll see Aaron Murray and Mettenberger tossing the ball around while Todd Gurely and Jeremy Hill gain the yards on the ground. Who does the advantage go to? Georgia since they're at home? Or LSU since they have the better defense?
Prediction: LSU 38 Georgia 37

#18 Mississippi Rebels at #1 Alabama Crimson Tide
A couple of years ago this game wouldn't have been anything but an easy win for the Crimson Tide. However Ole Miss has done a complete 180 under coach Hugh Freeze. They're ranked in the top 20, just had a top five recruiting class, and are putting the Tide on upset watch. Will they do it? I would think not. The Crimson Tide are a well oiled machine and the Rebels are still pretty young. If the game would be in Oxford, then I'd think more about it. But don't forget that Alabama tends to drop a game once a year. Last year it was to an upstart team within their division at home. Could Mississippi do what A&M did last year? We know that Alabama has struggled against uptempo spread teams. This game could come down to whether DTs Anthony Johnson and Ego Furgeson can slow down Gurley.
Prediction: Alabama 31 Mississippi 28

#21 Wisconsin Badgers at #8 Ohio State Buckeyes
It's the first weekend of Big 10 conference play, but we already have a game that should decide the Leaders Division. Wisconsin and Ohio State are both clearly the two best teams in their division and both should win out the rest of the conference play. We get to see the top two rushing teams in the nation. It may be obvious, the the winner of this game is likely the team that slows down the other offense. That advantage should go to Wisconsin. But as good as Wisconsin's offense is, they aren't as explosive as Ohio State. Can Wisconsin outscore the Buckeyes? And how will Braxton Miller do in his return? Will his rust hurt the Buckeye's? How much will home field advantage come into play?
Prediction: Wisconsin 27 Ohio State 34

#11 South Carolina Gamecocks at Central Florida Knights
This is a sneaky good game because not a lot of people realize how good Central Florida is and South Carolina hasn't looked great this year. UCF is coming off a big win against Penn State and are 3-0. Add in that the game is in Orlando and I wouldn't be shocked if UCF got the win. However South Carolina is still the 11th ranked team and no slouch. UCF looks good on paper, but Penn State isn't as good as we originally thought and we've seen teams like this before get blown out in these big games? Will this be the same? Or can Blake Bortles and the Knights continue to put up milestones for their school?
Prediction: South Carolina 30 UCF 14

Arizona Wildcats at #17 Washington Huskies
It's a banner year so far for the Pac 12 and this match up could really vault the winning team. Washington is undefeated with and ranked in the top 20. A win here continues their momentum and could slide them closer to the top 10. A win for Arizona would keep them undefeated and get them into the top 25. This game also brings us two of the best running backs in the nation in Ka'Deem Carey (Arizona) and Bishop Sankey (Washington). The runner with the best game could determine the winner. Washington has the better defense, so they should get the advantage. But Carey is an All American and lead the nation in rushing last year. Will he be too much for Shaq Thompson and the Huskies? Or will the Husky crowd be too much for first year starter BJ Denker?
Prediction: Arizona 35 Washington 44



Battle to Watch

S Craig Loston (LSU) vs QB Aaron Murray (Georgia)

This week we get to see a pretty good battle between two guys that could be prominent names come draft season.  Their match up within the game could be the deciding factor in who wins.  Let's take a look at this potential great battle.

Players
Aaron Murray is in his fourth year as the starting quarterback for Georgia.  He's played like one of the best QBs in the nation at times, but also shrunk in some of his biggest games.  He's coming off a 408 yard 3 TD performance.  He's not very big at only 6'1 (if that) but utilizes good accuracy and a ton of high quality experience. 

Craig Loston may be the best if not second best safety in college football right now.  He's an all around safety that can play in both run support and in coverage.  He has good sleep and will fly to the ball.  For the most part he's a good tackler, but will miss tackles with poor technique and fundamentals.

Match Up
This is your classic QB vs S match up where Murray is going to try and manipulate Loston with his eyes to move him where he wants.  If Murray can trick Loston into floating towards one side or getting him to bit on play action he could have a good game.  However Loston does have the speed to make up for some mistakes, so it's important that he doesn't get too aggressive.  But that may be hard to do with Georgia having such a good running back in Todd Gurley.  This will definitely be good battle to watch throughout their game.



Playoff Watch

As pretty much everybody knows, this is the final year of the BCS. Now while most people have longed for a playoff, I've always been a fan of the Bowls. But that's another story for another day. But with the non-conference schedule all but done, I thought that it would be fun to look ahead and see what a playoff would look like this year at this point in the season.

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs #4 Stanford Cardinal

#2 Oregon Ducks vs #3 Clemson Tigers


Projected National Title Game
#1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs #2 Oregon Ducks

Summary
The crazy thing about these match ups is that in both games you have similar teams playing each other. Alabama and Stanford are both power running teams that run 3-4 defenses. Oregon and Clemson are both high flying spread offenses who are going to try outscore you. One game the first team to 20 might win, where the other the first team to 50 might win. I do think that both Alabama and Oregon would win their games based on what we've seen already, but part of me wants to pick Stanford (maybe my Pac 12 love affair).

As for the National Title Game. I've wanted to see Alabama vs one of the top offenses in college (almost got it with Oklahoma State a couple of years ago) but that just hasn't happened. The Crimson Tide struggled at times with Texas A&M's tempo, how would they do against Oregon's? However I still do think Alabama's experience and talent shine through.

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