Weekend Kickoff (Week 13)

Games of the Week

Season Record (40-20)

#3 Baylor Bears at #15 Oklahoma State Cowboys
With the Big 12 schedule so back loaded we are beginning to see a mini playoff to determine the conference championship.  Arguably the two best teams in the conference face off against each other here.  Both teams will bring explosive offenses and look to put a lot of points on the scoreboard.  But what's lost is both teams are actually playing pretty good defense.  For me this game will resemble the Tech game for Baylor.  Expect it to be close through the first half, but Baylor just has too many weapons and their defense is playing too good.
Prediction:  Baylor 49 Oklahoma State 34

#8 Missouri Tigers at #23 Mississippi Rebels

If Missouri wants to make it to the SEC Championship game, they are going to need to win out.  Easier said than done, especially since they have to travel to Oxford to play a Mississippi team that is resurgent after a tough early season slate.  This game will be a shootout as both teams bring explosive spread offenses to the table.  A key area to watch is how Missouri QB James Franklin does in his return from injury.  Will he pick up where he left off or will his rustiness cause the offense to stall?  On paper the Tigers should win, but under Hugh Freeze, the Rebels have been very tough at home.
Prediction:  Missouri 35 Mississippi 38

#10 Texas A&M Aggies at #19 LSU Tigers

Even with the SEC West Title out of reach both of these teams won't be letting up and that should turn out to be a big game.  Johnny Manziel and the Aggies will look to get revenge from last year's loss to the Tigers and their hopes of a BCS Bowl are still there.  Don't expect a lot of defense to be played in this game.  We know about the Aggies struggle on that side, but LSU's defense is very young and it's shown in the amount of points they've given up.  This game comes down to which QB makes the most plays, and in that case it's hard to bet against Manziel.
Prediction: A&M 41 LSU 38

#20 Arizona State Sun Devils at #14 UCLA Bruins

This game pits the two top teams in the Pac 12 South.  If Arizona State wins they clinch the South and will play Oregon in the conference title game.  If UCLA wins they have the tie breaker against ASU, but will need to beat USC to clinch the division.  Both teams will bring in good running games with Arizona State having Marion Grice who is very explosive running and catching the ball out of the backfield.  UCLA counters with their dynamic freshman LB Myles Jack who has exploded since he started getting snaps at RB.  Which ever team's defense steps up should determine the winner.  That could be Arizona State who has been on fire since their loss to Notre Dame holding defenses to 18.8 points per game.  Don't be surprised if LB Anthony Barr has a huge game.  ASU has given up eight sacks the past two games and Barr is one of the best pass rushers in the nation.
Prediction: Arizona State 31 UCLA 34

#12 Wisconsin Badgers at #25 Minnesota Golden Gophers

Minnesota's season has been a great story.  Overcoming their head coaching leaving the team for treatment of epilepsy the Golden Gophers have bounded together and have a chance to win ten games for the first time since 2003.  But to get their they first have to beat a Wisconsin team that is playing as good as anybody in the nation.  The Badgers bring a power running game that is averaging over 300 yards a game and is so physical you'll still be hurting a week later.  The Gophers aren't too shabby rushing the ball either going for 218 per game.  If Minnesota wants to win, they have to force some turnovers and limit the Badgers on the ground.  They been playing pretty good defense, but they haven't played a team like Wisconsin all year.  Minnesota's story is nice, but that is no match for the Wisconsin machine.
Prediction:  Wisconsin 38 Minnesota 13

---

Match up to Watch

Minnesota DT Ra'Shede Hageman vs Wisconsin G Ryan Groy

Player Profiles

Ra'Shede Hageman doesn't get a lot of attention, mainly because he plays at Minnesota were they are considered an afterthought most of the time.  But Hageman is considered to be one of, if not the best defensive tackles in all of college football.  Despite being 6'6 311 lbs Hageman has freakish athletic ability that somebody his size shouldn't have.  He displays great strength and uses that with his quickness to get lineman on their heels allowing him collapse the pocket from within.  Pair all of this together and  you have the makings of a dominant defensive tackle.  However this doesn't mean that Hageman doesn't have his flaws.  Hageman struggles to disengage with blockers and cause him to be taken out of the play.  He relies too much on his natural strengths which at the next level will not be able to rely solely on.  His quickness can lead to him overrunning the play and being a non factor.

When you think of the University of Wisconsin you naturally think of their massive offensive line.  Stands 6'5 318 lbs, Ryan Groy is no different.  Groy plays left guard for the Badgers, but has shown the ability to play left tackle when needed.  Groy is very light on his feet and moves around very good.  He sets up well in the passing game and can mirror defenders very effectively.  Wisconsin takes advantage of his agility and loves to pull him on traps, and power plays.  While Groy shows good strength and can move a defender off the ball, he isn't the mauler that you think of when you picture Wisconsin lineman.  Groy has all the makings of a zone blocking lineman due to his good technique and athletic ability.

Outlook
If Minnesota wants to knock off Wisconsin, they are going to need a huge game out of Hageman.  And they should be able to take advantage of what I see as a mismatch.  Groy isn't the most physical blocker and doesn't have that great of an anchor.  Because of Hageman's power it will be hard for Groy will struggle to move Hageman off his spot or stop him in his tracks when he bull rushes.  I look for Wisconsin to look to trap Hageman and get him to over pursue, but he's still going to make an impact.  I still like Wisconsin to win this game going away, but Hageman is going to make give Groy all he can handle and more.