Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Weekend Kickoff (Week 14)

Games of the Week
Season Record (41-24)

#1 Alabama Crimson Tide at #6 Auburn Tigers
The Iron Bowl is so much better when both teams are playing for something.  The winner is the SEC West champion and has the inside track to the National Title Game.  On paper this looks like a game that should go down to the wire and in rivalry games they usually do.  However Alabama has a history of winning big in games like this.  Auburn is a run heavy, but that plays right into the Crimson Tide's strength.  If the Tigers want to win they are going to have to test the Bama corners which are the weak point of this defense.  But I really question if QB Nick Marshall will be able to do that.
Prediction:  Alabama 23 Auburn 13

#7 Clemson Tigers at #13 South Carolina Gamecocks
The battle of South Carolina pits two teams within the top 15 who are looking to win this game to boost their national appeal.  Clemson has enjoyed a great season, but their blowout loss to Florida State has cause people to forget about them.  South Carolina's still has a shot at the SEC Title and would love to get this win to boost their chances of landing a BCS at large bid.  We get to see strength on strength as the Clemson offense will go against the South Carolina defense.  I like Clemson's offense in that match up because the Gamecocks secondary isn't as good as the past few years, while Clemson's defense is also better than South Carolina's offense.  I wouldn't be surprised the latest if this game was a blowout.
Prediction:  Clemson 41 South Carolina 28

#19 Texas A&M Aggies at #4 Missouri Tigers
For a Missouri team that is looking to get to their first SEC Title Game, they have a tough task ahead of them to get there.  Beating A&M is never easy.  Even with their poor defense you to slow down Johnny Manziel and only LSU has shown to do that.  A&M is stinging from that loss and wants to prove that they are still a top level SEC Team.  Missouri has shown the ability to score a lot of points which will help them if Manziel goes off.  But the Tigers defense is underrated and Michael Sam could cause a lot of problems for Manziel if he can get to him.  But with too much on the line, I see a dialed in Missouri team looking to protect their home turf.
Prediction:  A&M 42 Missouri 47

#24 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at #10 Stanford Cardinal
Stanford has made hay this year behind a strong defense and an even stronger power running attack.  In the finese happy Pac 12, they've pretty much had their way.  But against Notre Dame they will arguably see their toughest defensive line all year. And just think, that line could be tougher if NT Louis Nix was playing.  But a torn meniscus will sideline him and leave a big hole in the middle.  This means that DE Stephon Tuitt will have to step up big time to help fill that void.  I still think Notre Dame's depth on defense will help them out and still slow the Cardinal rushing attack down.  But not having Nix is really going to hurt.  He's a big difference maker.
Prediction:  Notre Dame 13 Stanford 16

#20 UCLA Bruins at #21 USC Trojans
This game doesn't have the same meaning as it would if UCLA had beaten Arizona State, but that doesn't mean it isn't important.  UCLA wants to win this game to show recruits that they are the top program within the city.  USC wants to win this game so that it gives their interim head coach Ed Orgeron and even better chance of getting the permanent job.  UCLA should have the advantage with their explosive offense and dynamic playmakers on defense.  However USC is playing with such a swagger and confidence that is going to be hard to match.  I like how UCLA's front seven should be able to over match the USC offensive line causing all sorts of issues for QB Cody Kessler.. 
Prediction:  UCLA 24 USC 17



Match Ups to Watch

Auburn DE Dee Ford vs Alabama LT Cyrus Kouandjio

The main focus is whether the Auburn offense can put up points on Alabama's defense, but this battle is one that has just as much importance.  Auburn needs to slow down the Alabama attack and the one player to really watch is Dee Ford.  Ford has eight sacks on the season and is one of Auburn's top pass rushers.  He uses his speed and quickness to get past offensive tackles and to the ball.  Kouandjio was highly regarded as one of the top tackles in college football, but has struggled with consistency this year.  Kouandjio is at his best in the run game, but still has good athletic ability and a strong anchor that helps him in pass protection.  If Ford can utilize his speed and quickness he could cause problems for Kouandjio who has struggled with is balance.  A good double move could allow Ford and freshman Carl Lawson to get past Kouandjio and help cause chaos in the backfield.

Clemson WR Sammie Watkins vs South Carolina CB Jimmy Legree

Watkins is Clemson's top playmaker and QB Tajh Boyd is going to look to get the ball in his hands early and often.  Watkins has all that you want out of a wide receiver, speed, size, and explosiveness.  Look for South Carolina to mix up their coverages on Watkins to try and confuse Boyd and cause him to make mistakes.  Not only will they look to mix up coverages, they could send different players at Watkins.  The two players that could see the majority of time on Watkins are Legree and Victor Hampton.  But don't be surprised if Legree gets most of the time due to his size (6'0) and length could help against the 6'2 wideout.  Legree does possess good speed and athletic ability and has lead the team in interceptions the past two years.  But he is no match for Watkins who is arguably the top playmaker in all of college football.  Watkins should be able cause some damage and get a big play or two.  Let's face it, if the Gamecocks don't put a safety over the top of him every play, they're not very smart.  I'd give him the Calvin Johnson treatment.

Texas A&M OTs Jake Matthews and Cedric Ogbuehi vs Missouri DE Michael Sam

Jake Matthews has done a great job moving from the right tackle spot to the left.  This move has allowed him to showcase his ability and up his draft stock.  Not to be outdone, Cedric Ogbuehi slid from guard to right tackle and has flourished.  Both tackles are very good athletes and have no trouble mirroring defenders in the passing game and keeping QB Johnny Manziel clean.  But they will have their hands full with Michael Sam.  Sam was just an average outside linebacker last year, but put into a pass rushing role this season he has flourished notching 10 sacks so far and terrorizing quarterbacks along the way.  Sam does a great job of anticipating the snap and explodes off the line to get past the tackles and into the backfield.

Look for Missouri to move Sam around make the defense account for where he is.  However A&M is blessed with basically two left tackles, which helps them.  Because Sam is undersized (6'2 255) the Aggies will look to run the ball at him as he struggles to take on blocks and shed.  In the passing game to be successful against Sam, Matthews and Ogbuehi need to get their hands on him.  If they can do that they could slow him down.  Otherwise he will be able to get past and make plays on Manziel.  I see Sam getting a sack in this game, but for the most part the A&M tackles will get the best of this match up.



Oregon CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu vs Oregon State WR Brandin Cooks

Behind an outstanding year leading the nation in receiving yards, Brandin Cooks is flying up draft boards.  Like a lot of Beaver receivers that have come out in previous years, Cooks isn't very big (5'10 185lbs) but is a burner and uses his 4.30 speed to go in and out of cuts and beat you over the top.  Cooks is a good route runner and uses that with his speed to be open so often.  Ekpre-Olomu isn't an imposing corner coming in at 5'10, but he uses good agility and top notch instincts to lock down opponents.  He loves to be physical and isn't afraid of contact.  Even without great speed he is able to make a lot of plays on the ball due to his instincts and leaping ability.

With Ekpre-Olomu being the Ducks top cover guy and Cooks being the Beavers top receiver you know that they are going to be match upped all day long.  Cooks speed is going to give Ekpre-Olomu fits, but let's not forget that Ekpre-Olomu's physicality will affect Cooks ability to get off the ball cleanly.  Oregon State will look to move Cooks around and keep him off the line which will make it harder for Ekpre-Olomu to get his hands on him.  Cooks will get some yards just based off being able to spread the Ducks out, but Ekpre-Olomu should be able to make his presence known and throw Cooks off enough to make an impact.

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